The 2026 NFL Draft: Who Will Rise to the Top?
The NFL season is a rollercoaster of highs and lows, but even as we're deep into Week 9 of 2025, the future is already on the minds of many. With the 2026 NFL Draft still months away, it's never too early to start speculating about which teams will be making the early picks. Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we've got a sneak peek at how the draft order might shake out—and it's already sparking some interesting conversations. But here's where it gets controversial: Could the Tennessee Titans really secure the first pick for the second year in a row? And which teams might surprise us by landing in the top 10?
ESPN's FPI doesn't just pull numbers out of thin air. It simulates the remainder of the season a staggering 10,000 times, factoring in team ratings, game locations, and more to predict each team's final record and average draft position. It's a complex model, but here’s the gist: the worse a team’s projected record, the higher their chances of landing a top pick. And this is the part most people miss: even teams with seemingly decent records could slip into the top 10 if the simulations don’t go their way.
Let’s dive into the projections, starting with the teams currently at the top of the draft order:
1. Tennessee Titans (1-8)
- Average Draft Position: 3.1
- FPI Chance for No. 1 Pick: 29.4%
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 86.3%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 99.2%
The Titans are no strangers to early draft picks, and the FPI gives them a nearly 30% chance of securing the top spot again. But is this a sign of ongoing struggles, or just a blip in their long-term strategy?
2. New Orleans Saints (1-8)
- Average Draft Position: 3.3
- FPI Chance for No. 1 Pick: 26.6%
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 83.6%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 98.5%
The Saints are right behind the Titans, with a significant chance of landing the first pick. Could this be the year they turn things around with a high-impact rookie?
3. Cleveland Browns (2-6)
- Average Draft Position: 3.9
- FPI Chance for No. 1 Pick: 19.1%
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 77.3%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 97.4%
The Browns are no strangers to early picks, but will they finally find the missing piece to their puzzle?
4. New York Jets (1-7)
- Average Draft Position: 4.4
- FPI Chance for No. 1 Pick: 14.8%
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 70.8%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 96.3%
With two first-round picks, the Jets could be major players in the 2026 draft. But will they use them wisely, or will they fall into the trap of overreaching?
5. Miami Dolphins (2-7)
- Average Draft Position: 6.3
- FPI Chance for No. 1 Pick: 4.0%
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 46.2%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 88.7%
The Dolphins are in a similar boat, with a decent chance at a top-5 pick. Could this be the year they address their defensive woes?
6. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
- Average Draft Position: 6.3
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 46.7%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 88.4%
The Raiders are neck-and-neck with the Dolphins in terms of draft position. Will they focus on offense or defense with their early pick?
7. New York Giants (2-7)
- Average Draft Position: 8.6
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 22.7%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 70.6%
The Giants have a solid chance at a top-10 pick, but will it be enough to turn their season around?
8. Washington Commanders (3-6)
- Average Draft Position: 9.0
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 19.8%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 67.9%
The Commanders are on the bubble for a top-10 pick. Could this be the year they finally land a franchise quarterback?
9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)
- Average Draft Position: 9.7
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 16.8%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 65.1%
The Bengals are in a similar position, but will they focus on bolstering their defense or adding more offensive firepower?
10. Los Angeles Rams (via 3-5 ATL)
- Average Draft Position: 11.6
- FPI Chance for Top-5 Pick: 8.0%
- FPI Chance for Top-10 Pick: 44.1%
The Rams round out the top 10, but with a lower chance of landing a top-5 pick. Will they trade up or stay put?
Controversial Question: Are Early Draft Picks a Blessing or a Curse?
While early picks offer teams a chance to snag top talent, they also highlight ongoing struggles. Is it better to consistently draft early, or does that indicate deeper issues within the organization? Weigh in below—do you think teams like the Titans and Saints are on the right track, or are they stuck in a cycle of mediocrity?
As we approach Week 10, these projections are sure to shift, but one thing’s for certain: the 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a game-changer. Who do you think will rise to the top? Let the debates begin!
